Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? / Philip E. Tetlock.
Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? / Philip E. Tetlock.
Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? / Philip E. Tetlock.
About this item
Full title
Author / Creator
Publisher
Princeton, [N.J.] : Princeton University Press, 2005.
Date
2005.
Call Numbers
N320.019/ 23
Record Identifier
MMS ID
Language
English
Formats
Physical Description
Physical content
xvi, 321 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
Contents
Ch. 1. Quantifying the unquantifiable -- Ch. 2. The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism -- Ch. 3. Knowing the limits of one's knowledge : foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs -- Ch. 4. Honoring reputational bets : foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs...
Publication information
Publisher
Princeton, [N.J.] : Princeton University Press, 2005.
Place of Publication
New Jersey
Date Published
2005.
Subjects
More information
Scope and Contents
Summary
"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first...
Alternative Titles
Full title
Expert political judgment : how good is it? how can we know? / Philip E. Tetlock.
Authors, Artists and Contributors
Author / Creator
Notes
General note
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Contextual Information
Related resource (online)
Other version (online)
Identifiers
Primary Identifiers
Call Numbers
N320.019/ 23
Record Identifier
74VKJ28dJKWX
Permalink
https://devfeature-collection.sl.nsw.gov.au/record/74VKJ28dJKWX
Other Identifiers
ISBN
9780691123028 (cased) :
0691123020 (alk. paper)
DDC
320.019
MMS ID
991022043329702626
