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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PLoS computational biology, 2021-09, Vol.17 (9), p.e1009347-e1009347
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V ; Obolski, Uri
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PLoS computational biology, 2023-07, Vol.19 (7), p.e1011332
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V ; Donnelly, Christl A
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PLoS computational biology, 2022-04, Vol.18 (4), p.e1010004-e1010004
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence
Author / Creator:Sabino, Ester C ; Buss, Lewis F ; Carvalho, Maria P S ; Prete, Carlos A ; Crispim, Myuki A E ; Fraiji, Nelson A ; Pereira, Rafael H M ; Parag, Kris V ; da Silva Peixoto, Pedro ; Kraemer, Moritz U G ; Oikawa, Marcio K ; Salomon, Tassila ; Cucunuba, Zulma M ; Castro, Márcia C ; de Souza Santos, Andreza Aruska ; Nascimento, Vítor H ; Pereira, Henrique S ; Ferguson, Neil M ; Pybus, Oliver G ; Kucharski, Adam ; Busch, Michael P ; Dye, Christopher ; Faria, Nuno R
Publisher:England: Elsevier Ltd
Journal title:The Lancet (British edition), 2021-02, Vol.397 (10273), p.452-455
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V ; Donnelly, Christl A
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PLoS computational biology, 2020-07, Vol.16 (7), p.e1007990-e1007990
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V ; Donnelly, Christl A ; Jha, Rahul ; Thompson, Robin N
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PLoS computational biology, 2020-11, Vol.16 (11), p.e1008478-e1008478
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Using multiple sampling strategies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic sequencing data
Author / Creator:Inward, Rhys P. D. ; Parag, Kris V. ; Faria, Nuno R.
Publisher:London: Nature Publishing Group UK
Journal title:Nature communications, 2022-09, Vol.13 (1), p.5587-5587, Article 5587
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Point process analysis of noise in early invertebrate vision
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V ; Vinnicombe, Glenn
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PLoS computational biology, 2017-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e1005687-e1005687
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India
Author / Creator:Raghwani, Jayna ; du Plessis, Louis ; McCrone, John T ; Hill, Sarah C ; Parag, Kris V ; Thézé, Julien ; Kumar, Dinesh ; Puvar, Apurva ; Pandit, Ramesh ; Pybus, Oliver G ; Fournié, Guillaume ; Joshi, Madhvi ; Joshi, Chaitanya
Publisher:United States: U.S. National Center for Infectious Diseases
Journal title:Emerging infectious diseases, 2022-04, Vol.28 (4), p.751-758
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts
Author / Creator:Bhatia, Sangeeta ; Parag, Kris V ; Wardle, Jack ; Nash, Rebecca K ; Imai, Natsuko ; Elsland, Sabine L Van ; Lassmann, Britta ; Brownstein, John S ; Desai, Angel ; Herringer, Mark ; Sewalk, Kara ; Loeb, Sarah Claire ; Ramatowski, John ; Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina ; Jauneikaite, Elita ; Unwin, H Juliette T ; Riley, Steven ; Ferguson, Neil ; Donnelly, Christl A ; Cori, Anne ; Nouvellet, Pierre
Publisher:United States: Public Library of Science
Journal title:PloS one, 2023-10, Vol.18 (10), p.e0286199
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
How to Measure the Controllability of an Infectious Disease?
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V.
Publisher:American Physical Society
Journal title:Physical review. X, 2024-09, Vol.14 (3), p.031041, Article 031041
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Adaptive Estimation for Epidemic Renewal and Phylogenetic Skyline Models
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V. ; Donnelly, Christl A.
Publisher:England: Oxford University Press
Journal title:Systematic biology, 2020-11, Vol.69 (6), p.1163-1179
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V. ; Thompson, Robin N. ; Donnelly, Christl A.
Publisher:England: Oxford University Press
Journal title:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society, 2022-11, Vol.185 (Supplement_1), p.S5-S15
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Robust Design for Coalescent Model Inference
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V. ; Pybus, Oliver G.
Publisher:England: Oxford University Press
Journal title:Systematic biology, 2019-09, Vol.68 (5), p.730-743
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
Author / Creator:Thompson, Robin N ; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre ; Isham, Valerie ; Arribas-Bel, Daniel ; Ashby, Ben ; Britton, Tom ; Challenor, Peter ; Chappell, Lauren H K ; Clapham, Hannah ; Cunniffe, Nik J ; Dawid, A Philip ; Donnelly, Christl A ; Eggo, Rosalind M ; Funk, Sebastian ; Gilbert, Nigel ; Glendinning, Paul ; Gog, Julia R ; Hart, William S ; Heesterbeek, Hans ; House, Thomas ; Keeling, Matt ; Kiss, István Z ; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E ; Lloyd, Alun L ; McBryde, Emma S ; McCaw, James M ; McKinley, Trevelyan J ; Miller, Joel C ; Morris, Martina ; O'Neill, Philip D ; Parag, Kris V ; Pearson, Carl A B ; Pellis, Lorenzo ; Pulliam, Juliet R C ; Ross, Joshua V ; Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia ; Silverman, Bernard W ; Struchiner, Claudio J ; Tildesley, Michael J ; Trapman, Pieter ; Webb, Cerian R ; Mollison, Denis ; Restif, Olivier
Publisher:England: The Royal Society
Journal title:Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences, 2020-08, Vol.287 (1932), p.20201405
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil
Author / Creator:de Souza, William Marciel ; Buss, Lewis Fletcher ; Candido, Darlan da Silva ; Carrera, Jean-Paul ; Li, Sabrina ; Zarebski, Alexander E. ; Pereira, Rafael Henrique Moraes ; Prete, Carlos A. ; de Souza-Santos, Andreza Aruska ; Parag, Kris V. ; Belotti, Maria Carolina T. D. ; Vincenti-Gonzalez, Maria F. ; Messina, Janey ; da Silva Sales, Flavia Cristina ; Andrade, Pamela dos Santos ; Nascimento, Vítor Heloiz ; Ghilardi, Fabio ; Abade, Leandro ; Gutierrez, Bernardo ; Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ; Braga, Carlos K. V. ; Aguiar, Renato Santana ; Alexander, Neal ; Mayaud, Philippe ; Brady, Oliver J. ; Marcilio, Izabel ; Gouveia, Nelson ; Li, Guangdi ; Tami, Adriana ; de Oliveira, Silvano Barbosa ; Porto, Victor Bertollo Gomes ; Ganem, Fabiana ; de Almeida, Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira ; Fantinato, Francieli Fontana Sutile Tardetti ; Macário, Eduardo Marques ; de Oliveira, Wanderson Kleber ; Nogueira, Mauricio L. ; Pybus, Oliver G. ; Wu, Chieh-Hsi ; Croda, Julio ; Sabino, Ester C. ; Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
Publisher:London: Nature Publishing Group UK
Journal title:Nature human behaviour, 2020-08, Vol.4 (8), p.856-865
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Authors’ reply to the discussion of ‘Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?’ by Parag et al. in Session 1 of the Royal Statistical Society’s Special Topic Meeting on COV...
Author / Creator:Parag, Kris V. ; Thompson, Robin N. ; Donnelly, Christl A.
Publisher:Oxford: Oxford University Press
Journal title:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society, 2022-11, Vol.185 (Supplement_1), p.S55-S60
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Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population
Author / Creator:Hill, Sarah C ; Hansen, Rowena ; Watson, Samantha ; Coward, Vivien ; Russell, Christine ; Cooper, Jayne ; Essen, Steve ; Everest, Holly ; Parag, Kris V ; Fiddaman, Steven ; Reid, Scott ; Lewis, Nicola ; Brookes, Sharon M ; Smith, Adrian L ; Sheldon, Ben ; Perrins, Christopher M ; Brown, Ian H ; Pybus, Oliver G
Publisher:England: The Royal Society
Journal title:Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences, 2019-06, Vol.374 (1775), p.20180259
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SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China
Author / Creator:Thompson, Hayley A ; Imai, Natsuko ; Dighe, Amy ; Ainslie, Kylie E C ; Baguelin, Marc ; Bhatia, Sangeeta ; Bhatt, Samir ; Boonyasiri, Adhiratha ; Boyd, Olivia ; Brazeau, Nicholas F ; Cattarino, Lorenzo ; Cooper, Laura V ; Coupland, Helen ; Cucunuba, Zulma ; Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina ; Djaafara, Bimandra ; Dorigatti, Ilaria ; van Elsland, Sabine ; FitzJohn, Richard ; Fu, Han ; Gaythorpe, Katy A M ; Green, Will ; Hallett, Timothy ; Hamlet, Arran ; Haw, David ; Hayes, Sarah ; Hinsley, Wes ; Jeffrey, Benjamin ; Knock, Edward ; Laydon, Daniel J ; Lees, John ; Mangal, Tara D ; Mellan, Thomas ; Mishra, Swapnil ; Mousa, Andria ; Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma ; Nouvellet, Pierre ; Okell, Lucy ; Parag, Kris V ; Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon ; Riley, Steven ; Unwin, H Juliette T ; Verity, Robert ; Vollmer, Michaela ; Volz, Erik ; Walker, Patrick G T ; Walters, Caroline ; Wang, Haowei ; Wang, Yuanrong ; Watson, Oliver J ; Whittaker, Charles ; Whittles, Lilith K ; Winskill, Peter ; Xi, Xiaoyue ; Donnelly, Christl A ; Ferguson, Neil M
Publisher:England: Oxford University Press
Journal title:Journal of travel medicine, 2020-12, Vol.27 (8)
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ArticlesPeer ReviewedFull Text
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
Author / Creator:Flaxman, Seth ; Mishra, Swapnil ; Gandy, Axel ; Unwin, H. Juliette T. ; Mellan, Thomas A. ; Coupland, Helen ; Whittaker, Charles ; Zhu, Harrison ; Berah, Tresnia ; Eaton, Jeffrey W. ; Monod, Mélodie ; Ghani, Azra C. ; Donnelly, Christl A. ; Riley, Steven ; Vollmer, Michaela A. C. ; Ferguson, Neil M. ; Okell, Lucy C. ; Bhatt, Samir
Publisher:London: Nature Publishing Group UK
Journal title:Nature (London), 2020-08, Vol.584 (7820), p.257-261
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Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves

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Risk averse reproduction numbers improve resurgence detection

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Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers

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Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence

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Using information theory to optimise epidemic models for real-time prediction and estimation

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An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time

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Using multiple sampling strategies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic sequencing data

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Point process analysis of noise in early invertebrate vision

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Genomic Epidemiology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics, Gujarat, India

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Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts

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How to Measure the Controllability of an Infectious Disease?

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Adaptive Estimation for Epidemic Renewal and Phylogenetic Skyline Models

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Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?

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Robust Design for Coalescent Model Inference

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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

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Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil

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Authors’ reply to the discussion of ‘Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?’ by Parag et al. in Session 1 of the Royal Statistical Society’s Special Topic Meeting on COV...

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Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population

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SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China

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Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

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